Item reservation

ABSTRACT

Items can be reserved in advance of a future spot market sale. A reservation price can be determined for the item based on an expected spot market price required to obtain the item in the future sport market sale, a time until the spot market sale, and/or market signals. The reservation price can converge to the expected spot market price as the time of the future spot market approaches.

BACKGROUND

This document relates to content presentation.

The rise of the Internet has enabled access to a wide variety of contentitems, e.g., video and/or audio files, web pages for particularsubjects, news articles, etc. Such access to these content items haslikewise enabled opportunities for targeted advertising. For example,content items of particular interest to a user can be identified by asearch engine in response to a user query. The query can include one ormore search terms, and the search engine can identify and, optionally,rank the content items based on the search terms in the query andpresent the content items to the user (e.g., according to the rank).This query can also be an indicator of the type of information ofinterest to the user. By comparing the user query to a list of keywordsspecified by an advertiser, it is possible to provide targetedadvertisements to the user.

Another form of online advertising is advertisement syndication, whichallows advertisers to extend their marketing reach by distributingadvertisements to additional partners for presentation in availableplacements. In an online environment, placements are subsets of acontent network. For example, a placement can be any web property, e.g.,a website, a domain, or subset of web pages, etc., where an advertisercan place content items (e.g., advertisements). In other implementationsfor other media, a placement can be a media property that can be used topublish a content item, such as an advertisement.

Through syndication, third party (e.g., online) publishers can place anadvertiser's text, audio or image advertisements in placements (e.g.,advertisement slots) on web pages that have content related to theadvertisement. As the users are likely interested in the particularcontent on the publisher webpage, they are also likely to be interestedin the product or service featured in the advertisement. Accordingly,such targeted placement can help drive online customers to theadvertiser's website.

To place advertisements either through a search engine or throughadvertising syndication, an advertiser can participate in a spot marketauction. In the spot market auction, placements for the advertisementsare auctioned at the time of serving. In these situations, advertiserssubmit bids and await the outcome of the auction to learn whether theiradvertisement is served in the placement. The spot market auctions,however, do not facilitate purchasing of placements in advance of theiravailability.

SUMMARY

The subject matter of this specification relates to content presentationand in particular to item reservation, e.g., reserving placements inadvance of a future spot market auction. The reservation pricing can bedetermined for the reserved item based on an expected future spot marketprice, the time left before the spot market auction, and/or a time valuefactor.

The time value factor can be based on the value that advertisers placeon reserving the item now, rather than waiting to buy the item in thespot market. The advertiser's current value for the item can bedetermined based on the value associated with an assurance that anadvertiser will not lose the item in the spot market; that an advertisercan protect against price increases in the spot market; and increasedavailability of advertiser resources that would otherwise be used toparticipate in and monitor the spot market auction. The time valuefactor can vary over time, based on the item being reserved, and marketfactors (e.g., particularly valuable advertising time periods, such asthe week before Christmas).

In some implementations, the reservation system can include a feedbackmodule that can facilitate adjustment of the reservation price based on,for example, the time and time value factors. As the spot market timeapproaches, the feedback module implements a decay factor so that in theabsence of market signals, the price paid by the advertiser will decayto the spot market price. When market signals are detected by thefeedback module, the price of the reservation can increase. Thedisclosed reservation system can be implemented in various types ofauctions, and can also be implemented across multiple item categories.

In general, one aspect of the subject matter described in thisspecification can be embodied in a method of determining reservationpricing. The method of determining reservation pricing can include theactions of determining a future spot price for an item, where the futurespot price is an estimated price that is required for settlement in aspot market at a future time; determining a time value factor thatdefines a time dependent value of acquiring the item prior to the itembeing offered in the spot market at the future time; and determining areservation price for a current time for the item based on the futurespot price and the time value factor, where the reservation priceconverges to the future spot price as the current time approaches thefuture time. Other embodiments of this aspect include correspondingsystems, apparatus, and computer program products.

These and other implementations can optionally include one or more ofthe following features. The reservation price can be adjusted based onmarket signals. The market signals can be time-based signals that causethe reservation price to decrease. The market signals can also be demandsignals that cause the reservation price to increase or decrease. Thefuture spot market price can be determined based on previous actual spotmarket prices for the item. The spot market can be an online auction,and the item can be an online advertisement placement.

Particular embodiments of the subject matter described in thisspecification can be implemented so as to realize one or more of thefollowing advantages. Buyers that cannot bear the risk of losing theitem in the spot market can acquire the item at a current time ratherthan awaiting the spot market auction at the future time. An owner of anitem that will be available in the spot market at a future time canreduce a risk of not receiving an expected spot market price. Buyersthat do not reserve items can reallocate resources to participate inspot markets for items that have not been reserved. Items can beefficiently allocated among buyers based on the value of the items tothe buyers. A current reservation price for an item can reflect thefuture spot market price and the increased value for the reservation inadvance of the future spot market time.

These various optional advantages and features can be separatelyrealized and need not present in any particular embodiment. The detailsof one or more embodiments of the subject matter described in thisspecification are set forth in the accompanying drawings and thedescription below. Other features, aspects, and advantages of thesubject matter will become apparent from the description, the drawings,and the claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example online environment in whichreservation pricing can be implemented.

FIG. 2A is a graph of an example reservation price that varies as afunction of time.

FIG. 2B is a graph of an example reservation price that varies as afunction of demand.

FIG. 2C is a graph of an example reservation price as a function of timewith market signal adjustments.

FIG. 2D is a graph of an example reservation price that varies as afunction of demand and in which the future auction price varies

FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an example reservation subsystem.

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of an example reservation pricing curve based ontime and demand.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an example computer system.

Like reference numbers and designations in the various drawings indicatelike elements.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example online environment 100 in whichreservation pricing can be implemented. The online environment 100 canfacilitate the identification and serving of content items, e.g., webpages, advertisements, etc., to users. A computer network 110, such as alocal area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN), the Internet, or acombination thereof, connects advertisers 102 a and 102 b, anadvertisement management system 104, publishers 106 a and 106 b, userdevices 108 a and 108 b, and a search engine 112. Although only threeadvertisers (102 a, 102 b, and 102 c), two publishers (106 a and 106 b)and two user devices (108 a and 108 b) are shown, the online environment100 may include many thousands of advertisers, publishers and userdevices.

Throughout this document, reservation pricing is described with relationto online advertising. However, reservation pricing can be implementedfor any content. For example, the reservation system disclosed can beused to reserve and price print media advertisement inventory, goodsbeing auctioned in a single spot market auction or over a time period,commodities, etc.

§1.0 Advertisement Publishing And Tracking

In some implementations, one or more advertisers 102 a, 102 b and/or 102c can directly, or indirectly, enter, maintain, and track advertisementinformation in the advertising management system 104. The advertisementscan be in the form of graphical advertisements, such as banneradvertisements, text only advertisements, image advertisements, audioadvertisements, video advertisements, advertisements combining one ofmore of any of such components, etc., or any other type of electronicadvertisement document. The advertisements may also include embeddedinformation, such as links, meta-information, and/or machine executableinstructions, such as HTML or JavaScript™.

A user device, such as user device 108 a, can submit a page contentrequest 109 to a publisher or the search engine 112. In someimplementations, the page content 111 can be provided to the user device108 a in response to the request 109. The page content can includeadvertisements provided by the advertisement management system 104, orcan include executable instructions, e.g., JavaScript™, that can beexecuted at the user device 108 a to request advertisements from theadvertisement management system 104. Example user devices 108 includepersonal computers, mobile communication devices, television set-topboxes, etc.

Advertisement requests can also be received from the publishers 106. Forexample, one or more publishers 106 a and/or 106 b can submitadvertisement requests for one or more advertisements to the system 104.The system 104 responds by sending the advertisements to the requestingpublisher 106 a or 106 b for presentation on one or more of thepublisher's web properties (e.g., websites and other network-distributedcontent). The advertisements can include embedding links landing pages,e.g., pages on the advertisers' 102 websites, that a user is directed towhen the user clicks an ad presented on a publisher website. Theadvertisement requests can also include content request information.This information can include the content itself (e.g., page or othercontent document), a category corresponding to the content or thecontent request (e.g., arts, business, computers, arts-movies,arts-music, etc.), part or all of the content request, content age,content type (e.g., text, graphics, video, audio, mixed media, etc.),geo-location information, etc.

In some implementations, a publisher 106 can combine the requestedcontent with one or more of the advertisements provided by the system104. This combined requested content and advertisements can be sent tothe user device 108 that requested the content (e.g., user device 108 a)as page content 111 for presentation in a viewer (e.g., a browser orother content display system). The publisher 106 can transmitinformation about the advertisements back to the advertisementmanagement system 104, including information describing how, when,and/or where the advertisements are to be rendered (e.g., in HTML orJavaScript™). Publishers 106 a and 106 b can include general contentservers that receive requests for content (e.g., articles, discussionthreads, music, video, graphics, search results, web page listings,information feeds, etc.), and retrieve the requested content in responseto the request. For example, content servers, related news contentproviders, retailers, independent blogs, social network sites, or anyother entity that provides content over the network 110 can be apublisher.

Advertisements can also be provided through the use of the search engine112. The search engine 112 can receive queries for search results. Inresponse, the search engine 112 can retrieve relevant search resultsfrom an index of documents (e.g., from an index of web pages). Searchresults can include, for example, lists of web page titles, snippets oftext extracted from those web pages, and hypertext links to those webpages, and may be grouped into a predetermined number (e.g., ten) ofsearch results.

The search engine 112 can also submit a request for advertisements tothe system 104. The request may include a number of advertisementsdesired. This number may depend on the search results, the amount ofscreen or page space occupied by the search results, the size and shapeof the advertisements, etc. The request for advertisements may alsoinclude the query (as entered or parsed), information based on the query(such as geo-location information, whether the query came from anaffiliate and an identifier of such an affiliate), and/or informationassociated with, or based on, the search results.

The search engine 112 can combine the search results with one or more ofthe advertisements provided by the system 104. This combined informationcan then be forwarded to the user device 108 that requested the contentas the page content 111. The search results can be maintained asdistinct from the advertisements, so as not to confuse the user betweenpaid advertisements and presumably neutral search results.

The advertisers 102, user devices 108, and/or the search engine 112 canalso provide usage information to the advertisement management system104. This usage information can include measured or observed userbehavior related to advertisements that have been served, such as, forexample, whether or not a conversion or a selection related to anadvertisement has occurred. The system 104 performs financialtransactions, such as crediting the publishers 106 and charging theadvertisers 102 based on the usage information. Such usage informationcan also be processed to measure performance metrics, such as aclick-through-rate (“CTR”), conversion rate, etc.

A click-through can occur, for example, when a user of a user device,selects or “clicks” on a link to a content item returned by thepublisher or the advertising management system. The CTR is a performancemetric that is obtained by dividing the number of users that clicked onthe content item, e.g., a link to a landing page, an advertisement, or asearch result, by the number of times the content item was delivered.For example, if a link to a content item is delivered 100 times, andthree persons click on the content item, then the CTR for that contentitem is 3%. Other usage information and/or performance metrics can alsobe used.

A “conversion” occurs when a user consummates a transaction related to apreviously served advertisement. What constitutes a conversion may varyfrom case to case and can be determined in a variety of ways. Forexample, a conversion may occur when a user clicks on an advertisement,is referred to the advertiser's web page, and consummates a purchasethere before leaving that web page. A conversion can also be defined byan advertiser to be any measurable/observable user action such as, forexample, downloading a white paper, navigating to at least a given depthof a Website, viewing at least a certain number of Web pages, spendingat least a predetermined amount of time on a Website or Web page,registering on a Website, etc. Other actions that constitute aconversion can also be used.

§2.0 Placement Reservation

In addition to an advertiser's advertisements being selected based oncontent such as a search query or web page content of a publisher, theadvertiser can reserve a placement (e.g., advertisement slot) on apublisher's property to present its advertisement for a defined period.The defined period can be, for example a defined time period, a definednumber of impressions, a defined number of conversions, or any otherdefinable period. During the defined period the advertiser'sadvertisements can be presented in the reserved placement position whenthe web property is served.

Placement reservation can enable advertisers to reserve placements priorto serving time. The ability to reserve placements enables advertisersto hedge risks associated with participating in spot auction for theplacement at the time of serving. For example, if an advertiser isrequired to participate in a spot auction for the placement, theadvertiser is not assured to have its advertisement served because theadvertiser may not submit a bid high enough to secure the placement. Inturn, the advertiser may miss an advertising opportunity if theadvertiser is outbid.

Additionally, placement reservation allows advertisers to buyadvertising at times when an advertising budget is available even ifthis does not coincide with the serving of the advertisement. Forexample, an advertiser may have a present budget available for a futureadvertising campaign, e.g., an advertising campaign that will bepresented six months after the budget needs to be spent. In thisscenario, the advertiser may not be able to ensure that the budget willstill be available when the advertisement is actually presented. Thus,advertisers may not be able to advertise in mediums that have placementsthat are sold in a spot market auction (e.g., the placement is sold atthe time of advertisement presentation). Accordingly, it can beadvantageous to enable advertisers to reserve placements in advance ofthe serving time, rather than waiting for a spot market auction of theplacement.

To efficiently allocate the placements, a reservation subsystem 130 canbe included in the advertisement management system 104. The reservationsubsystem 130 can determine an appropriate price for the reservation, asdiscussed below.

§3.0 Reservation Pricing

In some implementations, placements can be reserved in advance of anauction spot market performed at serving time. For example, as discussedabove, advertisers 102 may be permitted to reserve placements so thatthe advertisers 102 can be assured that their advertisements are beingserved in the reserved placements at the reserved times or durations. Insome implementations, the price of the placement reservations can bedetermined by the reservation subsystem 130. The reservation subsystem130 can determine the appropriate price for the placement reservation,for example, by determining the value received from reserving theplacement in advance of an auction. In some implementations, the valueof the reservation can be determined based on the expected price for theplacement if the placement is auctioned in a spot market at the time ofserving, a time value factor, and/or market factors.

§3.1 Time Value Factor

In some implementations, the reservation pricing subsystem 130 candetermine an expected future price for the placement if the placement isauctioned in a spot market at the time of serving. For example, thereservation pricing subsystem 130 can identify historical prices thathave been paid for the placement to determine the expected price for theplacement in a future auction. In some implementations, the expectedprice can be an average of the historical prices that have been paid forthe placement. In other implementations, the expected price can be aweighted average of the historical prices, or some other centraltendency of the historical prices.

In these implementations, the price paid in each previous auction can beweighted based on an auction characteristic. The auction characteristiccan be, for example, a characteristic of the auction that has beenidentified as influencing a final auction price. The number of bidsreceived during an auction is one example of an auction characteristicthat can influence the final auction price. If more bids than averagewere received for a particular auction, this can be an indication thatthere was higher demand for the placement in that auction. In turn, thehigher demand can result in a higher than average final auction price.

Day and time of advertisement serving are additional auctioncharacteristics that can influence the final auction price for aplacement, and therefore, can be considered in determining the expectedfuture price to be paid in an auction. For example, auctions foradvertisements that are served in placements the week of Thanksgivingcan have a higher final auction price than placements that are servedthe first week of March because of an increased demand for advertisingdue to the holiday shopping season. Accordingly, historical auctionprices that correspond to the same time period as the reservation can beweighted more heavily than historical auction prices that do notcorrespond to the same time period as the reservation to account forseasonal differences in placement pricing.

Once the reservation pricing subsystem 130 has determined the expectedprice for the placement in a future auction, the reservation subsystem130 can use this expected price to determine the value of a reservationfor the placement relative to the expected auction price. In someimplementations, the reservation subsystem 130 can determine the valueof the reservation based on a time value factor. The time value factorcan be, for example, a representation of the value difference associatedwith the placement at the time of a future auction and the current time.An example equation that represents the reservation price as a functionof time is provided in Equation 1.

P(i,t)=B(i)*f(T−t)   (1)

Where:

-   P(i,t,) is the reservation price for placement i at time t;-   B(i) is the expected future auction price of placement i at time T;    and-   f(T−t) is a time value factor that can vary as a function of the    auction time T and the current time t.

The time value factor can increase the reservation price over theexpected price when a current placement reservation is more valuablethan the expected auction price. This can occur, for example, whenadvertisers value the assurance of securing the placement in advance,locking in a price to protect against increases in market pricing,and/or freeing up resources that might otherwise be allocated tomonitoring future spot auctions.

Similarly, the time value factor can decrease the reservation pricebelow the expected auction price when the current placement reservationis less valuable than the expected auction price. This can occur, forexample, when there is risk involved with committing to purchase theplacement in advance of the serving time (e.g., falling spot marketprices, value is contingent on the occurring of an event, etc.). Forexample, if the value of a particular placement is dependent on thehappening of an event, such as a particular sports team winning ascheduled sporting event, then the current reservation price may belower than the spot market price for the placement after the happeningof the event.

FIG. 2A is a graph of an example reservation price that varies as afunction of time. The expected future auction price for the placement attime T is represented by P_(t). The current reservation price for theplacement is represented by P₀. As can be seen in FIG. 2A, the currentreservation price for the placement decays as a function of time andconverges with the expected future auction price at time T. The decay ofthe reservation price over time can be dependent on the time valuefactor that is applied to the expected future auction price P_(t).

In this example, the time value factor decreases as the future auctiontime approaches. The resulting price value function represents ascenario where advertisers derive greater value from reserving theplacement earlier, and therefore, the time value factor is directlyproportionate to the amount of time remaining until the auction.Accordingly, as the auction time approaches, the value that theadvertisers associate with the reservation decreases relative to thespot market price, until the value of reserving the placement equals theexpected auction price at the time of the auction.

As shown in FIG. 2A, curve 212 is an example of a time value factor thatis linear with respect to time. When the relationship illustrated bycurve 212 demonstrates a situation where the value associated with aplacement reservation decreases at a substantially constant rate as thetime of the auction approaches.

Curve 214 is another example of a time value factor that is linear withrespect to time. However, the relationship illustrated by curve 214demonstrates a situation where the value associated with a placementreservation increases as a substantially constant rate as the time ofthe auction approaches.

In some implementations, the reservation subsystem 130 can determine afunction that characterizes the time value factor as a function of time.In turn, the reservation pricing subsystem 130 can determine areservation price for the placement at any time prior to the scheduledtime of the auction based on the time remaining until the auction andthe expected future auction price. For example, Equation 2 is a sampletime value function that can be used to determine the time value factorat any time t.

F(T−t)=exp(β(T−t))   (2)

Where:

-   β is a time sensitivity factor for the market.

According to Equation 2, when β is greater than 1, advertisers will paymore than the expected future auction price for the reservation, asindicated by the solid decay line. The higher β, the more advertisersare willing to pay for a reservation at a time in advance of the auctiontime. If β= 1/100 then Equation 2 becomes f(t−T)=1.01̂(T−t). Therefore,every day in advance of the auction, an advertiser is willing to pay anadditional 1% to secure the placement. As β increases, the additionalprice per day over the expected future auction price increases.

In contrast, when β is negative, advertisers will pay a reduced pricefrom the expected future auction price to reserve the placement inadvance of the auction, as indicated by the linearly increasing line ofthe first dashed pattern. For example, if β is − 1/100 then Equation 2becomes f(t−T)=0.99̂(T−t). Therefore, advertisers will pay 1% less thanthe expected future auction price for everyday in advance of the auctionthat the placement is reserved. As the magnitude of β increases, thereduction in price per day increases, such that advertisers will payeven less for reservations with a large negative β than a small negativeβ or a positive β.

Additional time value curves can be used to estimate the reservationprice for the placement, and these value curves need not be linear andmay either increase or decrease at various times. The time value curve216 illustrates one possible example.

§3.2 Market Signals

In some implementations, the reservation price for a placement can be afunction of market signals. An example market signal is a demand signal.The demand signal can, for example, represent a market demand for theplacement or related placements at, or over, a defined time period.Related placements can be placements that share attributes with theplacement for which a reservation price is being determined. Placementscan be related, for example, by having common content, having commonpages that link to the web pages containing the placements, and/orhaving demographic identifiers that indicate that the placements areviewed by users of a common demographic.

FIG. 2B is a graph of an example reservation price that varies as afunction of demand. As illustrated in FIG. 2B, the reservation price fora placement can increase as demand for the placement or relatedplacements increases. In some implementations, the demand for aplacement can be determined, for example, based on the remaining supplyof related placements. For example, if a demand signal received by thereservation subsystem 130 indicates a decrease in the number of relatedplacements that are available in the market at a time t (e.g., relatedplacements have been reserved for serving time T), the reservationsubsystem 130 can increase the current reservation price for theplacement at time T. This increase in reservation price represents theincreased value of the placement at time T due to the reduction insupply of related placements. The value of the placement at time Tincreases because advertisers that want to place an advertisement in theplacement or a related placement at time T have fewer placements fromwhich to choose. Thus, the reservation price of the remaining placementsincreases in proportion to the decrease in supply.

Similarly, an increase in demand for a placement or related placementscan be identified, for example, based on an increase in the number ofadvertisers that are bidding in current auctions. An increase in thenumber of advertisers bidding on the placement or related placements incurrent auctions can result in higher auction prices. These increasedauction prices may not be fully accounted for in the expected futureauction price, for example, because the increased auction prices may beso recent that they are statistically outweighed by the historical data(e.g., lower prices) used to determine the future expected auctionprice. Therefore, an observed increase in the number of bids for aplacement or related placements can increase the value of reserving theplacement prior to the auction time. Accordingly, an increase in thenumber of advertisers that are bidding on the placement or relatedplacements can result in a demand signal that, in turn, increases thereservation price for the placement at time T.

§3.3 Reservation Price Based on Time Value Factors and Market Signals

As discussed above, the reservation price can be adjusted over timeaccording to time value factors that correspond to each time t prior tothe auction time T. In some implementations, the reservation price canbe further adjusted based on market signals that are received prior tothe auction time T. FIG. 2C is a graph of an example reservation priceas a function of time with market signal adjustments. As can be seen inFIG. 2C, the reservation price can decay over time based on the timefactors associated with each time t, similar to the graph of FIG. 2A.However, the price can also be adjusted based on received market signalsthat indicate an increase in demand for related placements or a decreasein supply of related placements.

For example, if a demand signal is received at time t1 indicating that aportion of the related placements have been reserved for time T, then astep increase in reservation price can occur. After the step increase attime t1, the price can continue its decay toward the expected futureauction price over time. Similarly, if an additional demand signal isreceived at time t2 indicating that an additional portion of the relatedplacements have been reserved for time T, then an additional stepincrease in the reservation price can occur that reflects the increasedvalue of the placement due to the market signals received.

In addition to demand signals, additional market signals can be used toadjust the reservation price of a placement at time T. For example, ifit is determined that monetary exchange rates affect the auction pricefor placements, then the reservation price can be adjusted to accountfor changes in monetary exchange rates. Similarly, if world events(e.g., economic events, natural disasters, political events, etc.)affect the placement market, then the reservation prices can be adjustedto account for these world events. While the market signals aredescribed as discrete signals at particular points in time for purposesof illustration, the market signals can be adjusted on a continuousbasis so that reservation prices always reflect the current marketsignals.

The market signals can be determined based on a sample of the placementsin the market. For example, if an advertisement management system 104manages advertisements for a network of publishers 106, then theadvertisement management system 104 can identify the available inventoryand bidding activities for the placements that are available within thenetwork of publishers. Accordingly, the advertisement management system104 can determine market signals for a market defined by the placements,or a subset of placements, that are available within the network ofpublishers 106.

Additionally, while the future auction price for the placement at timeT, represented by P_(t), has been illustrated as being constant, thisvalue may also vary over time. FIG. 2D is a graph 240 of an examplereservation price that varies as a function of demand and in which thefuture auction price varies. Example value curves that converge to thefuture auction price are also shown.

§4.0 Example Reservation Subsystem

FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an example reservation subsystem 130. Insome implementations, the reservation subsystem can include areservation store 302, a pricing module 304, an inventory module 306,and a feedback module 308. The reservation subsystem 130 can beimplemented, for example, to facilitate reservation of an item prior toa spot market auction for the item.

In some implementations, the reservation store 302 is operable toreceive information that can be used by the reservation subsystem 130 tocreate a reservation for an item. For example, the reservation store 302can receive auction information and reservation information forplacements. The auction information can include information related topast auctions for placements. For example, a final auction price, numberof bidders, serving date, and serving time can be associated with eachplacement auction and stored in the reservation store 302. Additionalplacement auction information can also be stored in the reservationstore 302.

In some implementations, the reservation store 302 can also storeinformation for placement reservations. The placement reservationinformation can include, for example, the reservation price for theplacement, the time and date of the reservation, a number of bidsreceived for the reservation, bid values for the bids received,scheduled auction and serving times for the placement, as well as otherinformation related to the reservation. The reservation store 302 canreceive auction and reservation information for placements from theadvertisement management system 104, the pricing module 304, theinventory module 306, and the feedback module 308. Similarly, theinformation stored in the reservation store 302 can be accessible by theadvertisement management system 104, the pricing module 304, inventorymodule 306, and feedback module 308 to facilitate placement reservationpricing.

The pricing module 304 can be operable to determine a reservation pricefor a placement. In some implementations, the reservation price can bedetermined based on an expected future price for the placement in a spotmarket at a future time. An online placement auction is an example of aspot market because the auction can occur contemporaneously.

In some implementations, the pricing module 304 can determine theexpected future price for a placement based on previous auction pricesand reservation prices for the placement. For example, the pricingmodule 304 can determine an average final auction price for theplacement in all of the previous auctions in which the placement hasbeen auctioned. In turn, the pricing module 304 can assign the averageprice as the expected future price for the placement.

Based on the expected future price, the pricing module 304 can determinea current reservation price by adjusting the expected future price basedon the time value factor associated with the placement. As discussed inreference to FIG. 2A, the time value factor represents an increase ordecrease over the expected future price that an advertiser will pay toreserve the placement prior to the time of the auction. In someimplementations, the feedback module 308 can provide the time valuefactor that corresponds to the present time to the pricing module 304.In turn, the pricing module 304 can apply the time value factor to theexpected future price to determine a current reservation price. Thepricing module 304 can store the current reservation price in thereservation store 302.

In some implementations, the pricing module 304 can also determine acurrent reservation price by adjusting the expected future price basedon market signals. For example, market signals that indicate a decreasein supply or an increase in demand can be used by the pricing module 304to increase the current reservation price. Similarly, market signalsthat indicate an increase in supply or a decrease in demand can be usedby the pricing module 304 to decrease the current reservation price.

In some implementations, the pricing module 304 can obtain marketsignals, for example, from data stored in the feedback module 308. Inthese implementations, the feedback module 308 can access marketinformation directly from the reservation store 302, or through theinventory module 306, or by usage data received from the advertisingmanagement system 104. As discussed above, demand signals can begenerated in response to an increase in demand for the placement orrelated placements. The underlying data related to these demand signals,e.g., reservation rate purchases, etc., can be generated and stored inthe reservation store 302, for example, by the advertisement managementsystem 104. The feedback module 308 can identify the demand signals fromthe data in the reservation store 302 and provide corresponding feedbackto the pricing module 304. In turn, the pricing module 304 can adjustthe price in response to receiving the demand signals.

Market signals may not be directly available from data stored in thereservation store 302. In these situations, the feedback module 308 canreceive data based market signals, for example, from the inventorymodule 306. The inventory module 306 can be operable, for example, todetermine a percentage of available placement inventory relative to allplacement inventory. The determination can be made, for example, basedon the number of related placements that are reserved prior to theauction time. The inventory module 306 can use this determination toprovide a market signal to the feedback module 308. The feedback module308 can provide the market signal to the pricing module 304 and thepricing module 304 can adjust the current reservation price accordingly.

Once the reservation price has been determined, the pricing module 304can provide the current reservation price to the advertisementmanagement system 104 to determine whether a bid satisfies the currentreservation price. In some implementations, an advertiser can submit abid for the reservation without being provided the reservation price. Inother implementations, the advertiser can be provided the currentreservation price and determine whether to reserve the presentation.

If an advertiser submits a bid that satisfies the current reservationprice, the advertisement management system 104 can provide thereservation information directly to the inventory module 306 or to thereservation store 302. In turn, the inventory module 306 can reserve theplacement for the bidder, remove the placement from the list ofavailable placement inventory, and provide an updated market signalbased on the updated list of available placements to the feedback module308. The feedback module 308 can maintain the updated market signal andprovide the market signal to the pricing module 304 to facilitatedetermination of reservation prices for related placements.

§5.0 Example Process Flow

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of an example process 400 of reserving items. Theprocess 400 can, for example, be used in the advertisement managementsystem 104 and/or the reservation subsystem 130 of FIG. 1.

Stage 402 determines a future spot price for an item. In someimplementations, the future spot price can be an estimated price that isrequired for settlement in a spot market at a future time. An examplespot market is an online placement auction in which settlement of theauction and presentation of an advertisement in a placement occurscontemporaneously. The future spot price can be the expected futureprice required to win the online placement auction. The future spotprice can be determined, for example, by the pricing module 304 of thereservation subsystem 130.

Stage 404 determines a time value factor. In some implementations, thetime value factor can define a time dependent value of acquiring theitem prior to the item being offered in the spot market at the futuretime. For example, the time value factor can define the value that anadvertiser derives from reserving a placement in advance of an onlineauction for the placement. In some implementations, a time valuefunction can be defined that facilitates determination of the time valuefactor. The time value factor and time value function can be determined,for example, by the advertisement management system 104 or the pricingsubsystem of FIG. 1, and can be adjusted over time, e.g., adjusted toincrease a reservation prices if too many reservations are being sold,or adjusted to decreases a reservation price if too few reservations arebeing sold.

Stage 406 determines a reservation price for the item at a current timebased on the future spot price and the time value factor. In someimplementations, the reservation price can converge to the future spotprice as the current time approaches the future time. The reservationprice can be determined, for example, by the pricing module 304 of thereservation subsystem 130.

Stage 408 determines if a market signal is available. In someimplementations, the market signal can be a demand signal thatrepresents the current demand for the item. The determination of whethera market signal is available can be performed, for example, by thefeedback module 308 of the reservation subsystem 130.

When a market signal is available, stage 410 adjusts the reservationprice based on the market signal. For example, the reservation price canbe increased based on identification of a demand signal that indicatesan increase in demand for the item or related items. The reservationprice adjustment can be performed, for example, by the pricing module304 of the reservation subsystem 130.

Stage 412 receives a bid for the item. In some implementations, the bidcan be received from a bidder prior to or without presentation of thereservation price to the bidder. In these implementations, the bid canbe received at any time. In some implementations, the bid can bereceived after the reservation price is presented to the bidder. The bidcan be received, for example, by the advertisement management system104.

Stage 414 determines if the bid satisfies the reservation price. In someimplementations, the bid satisfies the reservation price when the bidmeets or exceeds the reservation price. The determination of whether thebid satisfies the reservation price can be performed, for example, bythe advertisement management system 104. When the bid does not satisfythe reservation price, the process 400 can continue to stage 406. Whenthe bid satisfies the reservation price, the process 400 can continue tostage 416.

Stage 416 reserves the item. The item can be reserved for the bidderthat submitted the bid that satisfies the reservation price. The itemcan be reserved, for example, by the inventory module 306 or theadvertisement management system 104.

§6.0 Example Computer System

FIG. 5 is block diagram of an example computer system 500. The system500 can be used to implement the reservation subsystem 130, and includesa processor 510, a memory 520, a storage device 530, and an input/outputdevice 540. Each of the components 510, 520, 530, and 540 can, forexample, be interconnected using a system bus 550. The processor 510 iscapable of processing instructions for execution within the system 500.In one implementation, the processor 510 is a single-threaded processor.In another implementation, the processor 510 is a multi-threadedprocessor. The processor 510 is capable of processing instructionsstored in the memory 520 or on the storage device 530.

The memory 520 stores information within the system 500. In oneimplementation, the memory 520 is a computer-readable medium. In oneimplementation, the memory 520 is a volatile memory unit. In anotherimplementation, the memory 520 is a non-volatile memory unit.

The storage device 530 is capable of providing mass storage for thesystem 500. In one implementation, the storage device 530 is acomputer-readable medium. In various different implementations, thestorage device 530 can, for example, include a hard disk device, anoptical disk device, or some other large capacity storage device.

The input/output device 540 provides input/output operations for thesystem 500. In one implementation, the input/output device 540 caninclude one or more of a network interface devices, e.g., an Ethernetcard, a serial communication device, e.g., and RS-232 port, and/or awireless interface device, e.g., and 802.11 card. In anotherimplementation, the input/output device can include driver devicesconfigured to receive input data and send output data to otherinput/output devices, e.g., keyboard, printer and display devices 560.Other implementations, however, can also be used, such as mobilecomputing devices, mobile communication devices, set-top box televisionclient devices, etc.

Embodiments of the subject matter and the functional operationsdescribed in this specification can be implemented in digital electroniccircuitry, or in computer software, firmware, or hardware, including thestructures disclosed in this specification and their structuralequivalents, or in combinations of one or more of them. Embodiments ofthe subject matter described in this specification can be implemented asone or more computer program products, i.e., one or more modules ofcomputer program instructions encoded on a tangible program carrier forexecution by, or to control the operation of, data processing apparatus.The tangible program carrier can be a propagated signal or a computerreadable medium. The propagated signal is an artificially generatedsignal, e.g., a machine generated electrical, optical, orelectromagnetic signal that is generated to encode information fortransmission to suitable receiver apparatus for execution by a computer.The computer readable medium can be a machine readable storage device, amachine readable storage substrate, a memory device, a composition ofmatter effecting a machine readable propagated signal, or a combinationof one or more of them.

A computer program (also known as a program, software, softwareapplication, script, or code) can be written in any form of programminglanguage, including compiled or interpreted languages, or declarative orprocedural languages, and it can be deployed in any form, including as astand alone program or as a module, component, subroutine, or other unitsuitable for use in a computing environment. A computer program does notnecessarily correspond to a file in a file system. A program can bestored in a portion of a file that holds other programs or data (e.g.,one or more scripts stored in a markup language document), in a singlefile dedicated to the program in question, or in multiple coordinatedfiles (e.g., files that store one or more modules, sub programs, orportions of code). A computer program can be deployed to be executed onone computer or on multiple computers that are located at one site ordistributed across multiple sites and interconnected by a communicationnetwork.

Additionally, the logic flows and structure block diagrams described inthis patent document, which describe particular methods and/orcorresponding acts in support of steps and corresponding functions insupport of disclosed structural means, may also be utilized to implementcorresponding software structures and algorithms, and equivalentsthereof. The processes and logic flows described in this specificationcan be performed by one or more programmable processors executing one ormore computer programs to perform functions by operating on input dataand generating output.

Processors suitable for the execution of a computer program include, byway of example, both general and special purpose microprocessors, andany one or more processors of any kind of digital computer. Generally, aprocessor will receive instructions and data from a read only memory ora random access memory or both. The essential elements of a computer area processor for performing instructions and one or more memory devicesfor storing instructions and data. Generally, a computer will alsoinclude, or be operatively coupled to receive data from or transfer datato, or both, one or more mass storage devices for storing data, e.g.,magnetic, magneto optical disks, or optical disks. However, a computerneed not have such devices. Computer readable media suitable for storingcomputer program instructions and data include all forms of non volatilememory, media and memory devices, including by way of examplesemiconductor memory devices, e.g., EPROM, EEPROM, and flash memorydevices; magnetic disks, e.g., internal hard disks or removable disks;magneto optical disks; and CD ROM and DVD ROM disks. The processor andthe memory can be supplemented by, or incorporated in, special purposelogic circuitry.

To provide for interaction with a user, embodiments of the subjectmatter described in this specification can be implemented on a computerhaving a display device, e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquidcrystal display) monitor, for displaying information to the user and akeyboard and a pointing device, e.g., a mouse or a trackball, by whichthe user can provide input to the computer. Other kinds of devices canbe used to provide for interaction with a user as well; for example,feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback, e.g.,visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback; and input fromthe user can be received in any form, including acoustic, speech, ortactile input.

Embodiments of the subject matter described in this specification can beimplemented in a computing system that includes a back end component,e.g., as a data server, or that includes a middleware component, e.g.,an application server, or that includes a front end component, e.g., aclient computer having a graphical user interface or a Web browserthrough which a user can interact with an implementation of the subjectmatter described in this specification, or any combination of one ormore such back end, middleware, or front end components. The componentsof the system can be interconnected by any form or medium of digitaldata communication, e.g., a communication network. Examples ofcommunication networks include a local area network (“LAN”) and a widearea network (“WAN”), e.g., the Internet.

The computing system can include clients and servers. A client andserver are generally remote from each other and typically interactthrough a communication network. The relationship of client and serverarises by virtue of computer programs running on the respectivecomputers and having a client server relationship to each other.

While this specification contains many specific implementation details,these should not be construed as limitations on the scope of anyinvention or of what may be claimed, but rather as descriptions offeatures that may be specific to particular embodiments of particularinventions. Certain features that are described in this specification inthe context of separate embodiments can also be implemented incombination in a single embodiment. Conversely, various features thatare described in the context of a single embodiment can also beimplemented in multiple embodiments separately or in any suitablesubcombination. Moreover, although features may be described above asacting in certain combinations and even initially claimed as such, oneor more features from a claimed combination can in some cases be excisedfrom the combination, and the claimed combination may be directed to asubcombination or variation of a subcombination.

Similarly, while operations are depicted in the drawings in a particularorder, this should not be understood as requiring that such operationsbe performed in the particular order shown or in sequential order, orthat all illustrated operations be performed, to achieve desirableresults. In certain circumstances, multitasking and parallel processingmay be advantageous. Moreover, the separation of various systemcomponents in the embodiments described above should not be understoodas requiring such separation in all embodiments, and it should beunderstood that the described program components and systems cangenerally be integrated together in a single software product orpackaged into multiple software products.

Particular embodiments of the subject matter described in thisspecification have been described. Other embodiments are within thescope of the following claims. For example, the actions recited in theclaims can be performed in a different order and still achieve desirableresults. As one example, the processes depicted in the accompanyingfigures do not necessarily require the particular order shown, orsequential order, to achieve desirable results. In certainimplementations, multitasking and parallel processing may beadvantageous.

This written description sets forth the best mode of the invention andprovides examples to describe the invention and to enable a person ofordinary skill in the art to make and use the invention. This writtendescription does not limit the invention to the precise terms set forth.Thus, while the invention has been described in detail with reference tothe examples set forth above, those of ordinary skill in the art mayeffect alterations, modifications and variations to the examples withoutdeparting from the scope of the invention.

1. A computer-implemented method, comprising: determining a future spotprice for an item, the future spot price being an estimated price thatis required for settlement in a spot market at a future time;determining a time value factor that defines a time dependent value ofacquiring the item prior to the item being offered in the spot market atthe future time; and determining a reservation price for the item at acurrent time based on the future spot price and the time value factor,the reservation price converging to the future spot price as the currenttime approaches the future time.
 2. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising adjusting the reservation price based on market signals. 3.The method of claim 2, further comprising determining a market signalbased on observed market conditions.
 4. The method of claim 2, whereinadjusting the reservation price comprises increasing the reservationprice based on a demand signal.
 5. The method of claim 2, whereinadjusting the reservation price comprises decreasing the reservationprice over time.
 6. The method of claim 1, wherein determining thefuture spot price for the item comprises determining the future spotprice for the item based on previous actual spot market prices for theitem.
 7. The method of claim 1, wherein the spot market is an onlineauction.
 8. The method of claim 7, wherein the item is an onlineadvertisement placement.
 9. The method of claim 1, further comprising:receiving a bid for the item; and reserving the item based on the bidand the reservation price.
 10. The method of claim 9, wherein the itemis reserved when the bid satisfies the reservation price.
 11. The methodof claim 9, wherein reserving the item removes the item from a list ofavailable items that are presented by a computer in response to a query.12. A reservation system, comprising: a pricing module to determine areservation price for an item based on an expected future price for theitem in a spot market at a future time; and a reservation store to storeauction information and reservation information for placements; afeedback module to provide market signals to the pricing module, whereinthe pricing module is operable to adjust the reservation price based ona time remaining until the spot market.
 13. The system of claim 12,wherein the pricing module is further operable to adjust the reservationprice based on market signals.
 14. The system of claim 12, furthercomprising an inventory module to identify and maintain a list ofavailable placement inventory and provide a market signal to thefeedback module based on the available placement inventory.
 15. Thesystem of claim 14, wherein the inventory module is operable to reservethe item for a bidder when a bid satisfies the reservation price. 16.The system of claim 15, wherein the inventory module is operable toremove the item from the list of available inventory when the item isreserved.
 17. The system of claim 16, wherein the feedback module isoperable to provide an updated market signal when the item is removedfrom the list of available inventory.
 18. The system of claim 12,wherein the pricing module is further operable to determine the expectedfuture price based on historical auction price information.
 19. Thesystem of claim 12, wherein the spot market is an online auction. 20.The system of claim 19, wherein the item is an online advertisementplacement.
 21. A device, comprising: means for determining a future spotprice for an item, the future spot price being an estimated price thatis required for settlement in a spot market at a future time; means fordetermining a time value factor that defines a time dependent value ofacquiring the item prior to the item being offered in the spot market atthe future time; and means for determining a reservation price for theitem at a current time based on the future spot price and the time valuefactor, the reservation price converging to the future spot price as thecurrent time approaches the future time.
 22. The device of claim 21,further comprising means for adjusting the reservation price based onmarket signals.